The Screaming Pen

Providing Global Insight, Context, and Perspective

This is Chess not Checkers That’s a Warning Shot

The Deadly Paradox of the Big Six’s Iranian Accord

It’s hard to suppress feelings of glee upon reading the headline “Six World Powers Agree on Iran.” This is the exact foundation that any diplomatic solution to the Iranian quandary must be based upon: a united international alliance providing Iran with a choice between carrots if it agrees to halt uranium enrichment and sticks if it doesn’t. A common diplomatic front brings the world one step closer to the chance for a peaceful solution; however, if the chance proves illusory it will also bring the world one step closer to war.

In the run up to Iraq in 2003, there were many arguments against the U.S. invasion, many of which could be reasonably discounted at the time. War is an extreme last resort, but the argument that it should never be used is flawed: when squared off against a murderous dictator conflict can become justifiable. Nor was U.S. belligerence a stand alone sound argument. Despite bellicose rhetoric from George Bush, Saddam Hussein had violated 18 U.N. resolutions and was sidestepping weapons inspectors. The most valid pre-war argument against going to war: that the Bush administration hadn’t exhausted all diplomatic options.


It’s your Turn, Khameini. Whatcha Gonna Tell ’em ya Big Bearded Fella?

The Diplomacy this Time

The Bush administration seems to have painfully learned how to go about building its case without alienating virtually every non-holder of an American passport. It first relied on negotiations led by the “European 3” – Britain, France, and Germany – during which Iran acquiesced to halting enrichment for a time. But Iran knew that the European trio’s silent partner held the key to the only concession vital to its survival: security. So Iran once again began work on its centrifuges.

Steadily advancing its nuclear know-how, Iran’s fiery president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad recently sent an 18-page letter to George Bush, which was touted as being the first direct communication between the two nations since the 1979 hostage crisis. Accustomed to years of frosty, static relations, Secretary Rice made a knee-jerk announcement that the letter suggested nothing new, and perhaps it didn’t. Then just this week Iran called for direct talks with America, which in the absence of a U.S. response gave Iran the impression of being patient and reasonable. So until the United States replied to these overtures – no matter the political or public relations intentions behind them – Iran would appear to be holding out the olive branch. America had to respond.

With the six-party agreement on Iran it did, and with perfect timing to boot. Iran will be presented with a package of incentives in return for a “verifiable” halt to its enrichment activities. If it continues to pursue nuclear weapons further Security Council action could follow. Clearly, Iran has to make the next move, and crucially, America will appear to have dutifully followed a diplomatic approach supported by the Security Council nations.

This appears to be good news for advocates of multilateralism and supporters of a peaceful, diplomatic solution. It’s good news for those who wanted Europe to face up to legitimate security threats, which due to pride and matters of the heart it could not with Iraq. And it’s good news for those who want to see more than obstructionism and the unbridled pursuit of resources from Russia and China.

The Ball’s in Their Court

Thus, the question now becomes, “What will Iran do?” The preferred choice is for it to accept the incentives offered and abandon its desire for nuclear weapons (merely nuclear energy, it says). This is possible but would likely only come in the form of a comprehensive strategic agreement leaving Iran assured of its own security. Observers should also note that the Iranian issue is not confined to uranium enrichment: Iran plays a powerful role in neighboring Iraq, has long supported insurgents in Lebanon, Palestine, and elsewhere; and exercises more power than many realize. It recently won backing for its nuclear program from Indonesia, and China and Russia usually provide solid political cover. These will have to be addressed.

The true test of the “Big Six’s” solidarity will come if Iran decides to balk: will the world support increasingly tough sanctions, or will views diverge? Governments around the world – now realizing that true threats must be confronted – may be more likely to follow, because they too have played an active diplomatic role this time round. Despite this, these countries’ citizens will have seen Iraq and the gruesomeness of war and are likely to feel much the same as they did before Iraq.

Will Iran stall, varying negotiations with concealment? Probably. This much is true, however: until now, with a dire situation in Iraq and virulent anti-Americanism everywhere, talk of military action against Iran seemed distant. Yet now, if diplomacy is given a fair chance and fails nonetheless, Iranian rejectionism will leave us on the precipice of Iraq redux. And this time – no matter the political logic beforehand– military action would be no more likely to create a stable or friendly or democratic country out of Iran than Iraq.

– DML

 2006. All rights reserved.

Note: The Iranian situation is highly fluid at present, with half a dozen diplomatic developments and announcements (see links below) being made in the past few days alone. Contrast this with the lack of bilateral contact that existed for the past 27 years between the two countries. As stated above, this will either lead to a breakthrough or a serious deepening of the standoff. Keep watching.

U.S. Offers to Join European Three in Talks with Iran
Iran Welcomes Talks, Rejects U.S. Conditions
Iran Considers Offer from Big Six
Washington Post Analysis

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June 2, 2006 - Posted by | Asia, Author: DML, China, Europe, France, Germany, International Relations, Iran, Iraq, Middle East, Nuclear Weapons, Oil, Palestine, Politics, Russia, United States, WMD

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