The Screaming Pen

Providing Global Insight, Context, and Perspective

In Shallah

What to Make of Somalia

Until recently, Somalia had been relegated to the depressingly long list of squalid, penurious places so depraved that no one much hoped for any sunny result. The international community largely disregarded Somalia, because hadn’t they tried to help the country before? That forlorn hope ended gruesomely with Black Hawk Down and the messy withdrawal of United Nations peacekeepers in 1993, which additionally helped dissuade foreign intervention elsewhere in Rwanda a year later at the cost of 1 million lives. Spurned and with no supreme interests at stake, the world gave up on Somalia.

In the meantime, Somalia’s capital Mogadishu continued to be one of the most violent and dangerous cities in the world. A prime example of a “failed state,” murderous warlords ruled the country and governmental institutions were non-existent; there was no central bank, foreign aid groups ran makeshift hospitals, and Islamists operated private schools. The international community’s half-hearted efforts to help out centered on propping up an interim government, led by Abdullah Yusuf, that is only nominally in charge of the country. When trying to return to Mogadishu last year he was shot at, and forced to flee in opprobrium. Moreover, as a former warlord many Somalis think Yusuf an Ethiopian stooge, which is hardly a favorable association in a country that’s long been at odds with its northern neighbor.


Looking for a New Career?

Frustrated by rapacious warlords, anomie, and political impotence, Somalis turned to the Islamic Courts Union. The Union began as a collection of local courts settling routine grievances and grew as militias turned out to enforce decisions, eventually coalescing to challenge and defeat the warlords.

So far the judgment is mixed. The ICU’s militias are imposing order and making the streets safe for the first time in memory. Optimistic stories abound of shops reopening and citizens venturing outside without bodyguard or arms. Yet others fear the introduction of Taliban-style theocracy and extreme rectitude. Indeed, there are already rumors of movie theater closings and beatings dealt out to young lovers for frolicking in public. Ultimately, there are more questions than answers at the moment.

Outsiders’ main concern is, unsurprisingly, with terrorism. Yusuf for one is claiming that the ICU is filled with foreign jihadists, although doing so also favors his own agenda; ICU gains are wresting control of territory from his grip. Long before recent interest in the country it was rumored that the CIA was channeling aid to the warlords so long as they kept al-Qaeda out. The ICU does appear to have a varied makeup, ranging from moderate to opportunistic and extreme.

The next concern centers on intervention. Such thoughts are premature, however, because despite recent media interest in the country there remains no legitimate party capable of effective governance that is therefore worthy of support. Unfortunately for Somalis, intervention may come from Ethiopia, which reports indicate has been moving contingents towards the town of Baidoa where Yusuf is holed up.

More promisingly, the ICU and the interim government recognized each other today and signed a cease-fire mediated by the Arab League. Surprisingly perhaps, Somalia’s kismet may not be entirely gloomy: breakaway regions of the country – Puntland and Somaliland – are already safe by comparison. Reassuringly, the concession with Yusuf wouldn’t have occured were al-Qaeda running the ICU. If moderation prevails Somalis may at last be able to affect how their country is governed.

Other peoples are itching for the day when this opportunity is afforded them. In Egypt, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, the oil monarchies and beyond, volatility and years of conflict are likely to pass before extremism’s inability to build a healthy society is exposed. No matter others’ prior experience with this, oppressed peoples throughout the Islamic crescent can’t be told that currently oppressive regimes are better than an alternative they’ve never tried, especially when it claims to have all the answers and promises eternal salvation. Once given the chance extremism will be shown for the failure that it is, people will tire of listlessness, and they’ll search for a sensible alternative. Let’s hope Somalia has already reached that point.

– DML

 2006. All rights reserved.

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June 23, 2006 - Posted by | Africa, Country Profiles, Intervention, Politics, Somalia, The War on Terror

2 Comments »

  1. Very good article–especially since nearly everyone has forgotten about Somalia, except when they go to Blockbuster–

    Comment by the big monk | July 2, 2006 | Reply

  2. Thanks for the comment!

    Unfortunately, recent events haven’t sustained the initial forecast of a potentially better future for Somalia. Extremists are always able to outmaneuver moderates in the absence of effective institutions and thus the rule of law, and it looks like that’s what’s happening right now in Somalia. According to a Washington Post article, the African Union is mulling intervention, which will be thoroughly opposed by the Islamists and probably the populace as they’ll see the force as a front for Ethiopia; the moderate leader of the Islamic Courts Union flew to Minnesota last week in despair; and negotiations with the U.N.-backed interim government have stalled. What brief optimism that occured after the ICU’s takeover now looks hopelessly sanguine.

    Comment by Anonymous | July 4, 2006 | Reply


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