Jenga!

How Instability in Pakistan could Create a Perilous Proxy War

With the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi yesterday in Iraq, we’re reminded that it takes just one accurately targeted missile or bomb to make life fleeting. While Zarqawi’s demise is celebrated in America and elsewhere, there are other areas of the world in which such precise targeting would cause not rejoicing but a major headache. Foremost among such places? Pakistan, and not just because of terrorists; the interests of the South Asia’s three largest powers are increasingly converging in what the Washington Post calls “the world’s most politically fragile nuclear power.”

Musharraf the Quisling

Al Qaeda and friends have tried and barely failed to knock off Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf several times. With Musharraf facilitating and aiding U.S. counter-insurgency efforts in the mountainous region along the Pakistan-Afghan border – and thus severely restricting al-Qaeda’s maneuverability – he’s mujahideen target number one. Leaflets distributed in tribal areas of Waziristan in May called for the “lions of Islam to kill the slave of Bush in Pakistan.”

Dude Needs a Chill Pill, and a sh*@l$!d of weapons

Were this to happen, the nature of a successor government looks far from set. As Musharraf himself came to power by coup d’ etat while circling Karachi in an airplane, and the general has gone on to consolidate personal control at the expense of democratic institutions, weak processes to name a successor could be easily subverted. Indeed, in a country in which only one in ten resident is favorably disposed towards America, popular sentiment might result in a noisy extremist assuming the reins of a nuclear-armed nation (thus the location of WMD must be an A-list priority for the CIA here; there have been reports of this). Nonetheless, a state of flux would emerge with foreign spy agencies forcefully vying for influence.

The Wolves Circle

And who would the meddlers be? Pakistan and Musharraf are centerpieces of America’s anti-terror strategy, and the CIA would obviously be supremely concerned with the outcome. Indeed, America has been ramping up efforts to keep Musharraf alive. India will be on the edge of its seat too. Since Britain abandoned its colonies after WWII, India and Pakistan – and Muslim separatists in Indian-controlled Kashmir – have been fighting over contested territory. India enjoys territorial advantage in the status quo, but spoilers and fanatics have prevented a formal peace and violence has spilled over, with sporadic attacks by armed-gunmen and suicide bombings in Delhi. Relations have thawed to an unprecedented degree since Indian Prime Minister Monmohan Singh took over, yet in the absence of a resolution the potential for disruption is ever-present. Moreover, both non-signatories to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty aim nuclear weapons at each other.

The third power in the region, China, is hardly a newcomer in Pakistan. Throughout the Cold War, China sought to offset hostility with India – witnessed by their 1962 border war – through friendship with Pakistan. During the 1990’s China exported weapons to the country and was vital to its acquisition of WMD. Of late, however, China has been further consolidating ties. In May, Pakistan placed an order for 150 Xiaolong fighter planes, a move that will replace the F-16 as the air force’s primary jet.

I Hear the Schools in the Neighborhood are Fantastic!

Before that, a February visit by Musharraf to Beijing saw the rapid-fire signing of 13 bilateral agreements on trade, security, and investment, which crucially included the announcement of Chinese aid in building an energy corridor through Pakistan that would supply China with imports of raw materials. China will finance the expansion of a port on the Pakistani coast at Gwadar, adding nine more berths, an approach terminal, and storage facilities. An oil and gas pipeline would then be built to ship materials from the Middle East directly to China’s western provinces, bypassing the (U.S. controlled) Malacca Straits. Never mind what this says about the domestic implications for minority and outlying areas through which the pipeline would cut – Xinjiang in China and Baluchistan in Pakistan – the external implications are clear: China-Pakistan ties are surging.

But They Sometimes Hunt in Packs

That Musharraf will go –in the near future due to assassination, bringing the return of insecurity, or later on because of time and age – is not in question. Neither is the reality that when he does, China, India, and the United States (with Iran potentially in the mix) will see their interests put to the test. Whether this engenders hostility and confrontation or cooperation is unclear; the signals, however, are not entirely inauspicious. China and India signed a border accord in April and have also just announced a $2b joint bid to develop a Kazakh oil field in an effort by the “world’s two fastest-growing major economies to avoid competing with each other,” according to the China Daily.  America and India agreed to a major nuclear deal in July last year. China and America have reached a consensus – although likely short-lived – on Iran, another rocky concern. Additionally, all three countries will be lothe to see WMD fall into terrorist hands or their economic interests threatened.

Against this backdrop, the most likely scenario is the emergence of another clique from the armed forces, commanding no popular support but receiving logistical sustenance from America, China’s tacit approval, and India’s watchful eye. This would be a stop-gap measure that leaves corrections between the people’s volition and political control for another day, yet is far better than allowing extremists assume control. Unfortunately, such has been the argument for supporting dictators everywhere for the past fifty years, always leaving the patriarch on the wrong side of history and fostering yet more grievances to be paid for in future.

– DML

 2006. All rights reserved.